Bill Gates had predicted in 2015 that the global catastrophe killing millions of people would most likely be a highly infectious virus, not nuclear missiles as everyone thought. If you have missed this popular one, you can watch the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI.
Now, digest this. Four years on, in their annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board in September 2019 specifically warned that there is a very real threat in the near future of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing anywhere between 50 to 80 million people and wiping out nearly 5% of the world’s economy.
In a connected, digitally-enabled world that has increasingly spent billions on technological progress, nuclear deterrents, consumer products, AI enabled predictive models and sciences and even diagnostic healthcare spends, it is appalling that leaders across the world and global watchdogs alike including the WHO have ignored all warning signs of the impending catastrophe.
The GPMB states that large scale viral outbreaks have been on the rise for the past several decades and this trend will likely continue. Even as the world scrambles to battle the COVID-19 pandemic with no long-term planning, my fear is that the next wave of this epidemic, or the next muted virus will be more severe, with consequences much worse. The COVID-19 crisis is a clarion call for a globally synchronized Disaster Management Program that needs to be implemented at regional levels, in every single country, to ensure this nightmare doesn’t repeat.
Here are my thoughts on WHY and HOW governments and international healthcare regulatory bodies must act today to set up effective Disaster Management Programs to save us from existential crisis.
1. More active role by global entities like the WHO: The modern, uber-connected world is symptomatic of a lifestyle unimaginable two decades ago. The globe has shrunk with transnational supply chains and frequent international travel– both magnifying the extent of infection spread and subsequent economic and social impact as we are experiencing with COVID-19. As I mentioned in my paper on The New Socio-Economic Normal After the Coronavirus Pandemic, COVID-19 has driven home the fact that no single institution or country, however developed, can step up adequately to address the impact all by itself. This reiterates the need for extensiveinternational co-ordination, communication and collaboration in the prevention of infectious diseases. It calls for arduous and obsessive governance by stakeholders like the WHO and Global Technical Council on Infectious Disease Threats. These organizations need to rise beyond mere policy making and arbitration to ensure effective planning, governance, regulation, implementation of necessary measures and contingency efforts while providing necessary leadership and support to countries globally.
2. Disaster Management planning is not equal to healthcare spends: Globally, statistics reveal that spends in healthcare on research in non-communicable diseases, advancements in procedures and precision medicine have increased substantially in the last decade. For instance, the US spent nearly 16.9% of their GDP on health, and Italy and Spain – 9% of their GDP. And yet, these are some of the countries most unprepared and impacted by COVID-19. Mc Kinsey and Company’s report suggests it could take the US and Eurozone economies up to 3 years to recover from the impact of COVID-19. The next epidemic will likely take global powerhouses even longer to recover from if we do not act now to focus on proactive disaster management.
3. Increased investment in research: Research spendsglobally on infectious diseases has been flagging in recent years. Across the world, nations have followed a cycle of panic and neglect when it comes to pandemics: we step up efforts too late in the cycle – when in the eye of the storm, and then quickly forget about them when the threat subsides. The key to controlling the impact of pandemics lies in proactive research and preparedness to minimize the social, health and economic impact of the outbreaks at a global level. According to the NCBI, a commitment of an incremental $4.5 billion USD per year would make the world much safer. There must be continuous study, transparent knowledge-sharing, research collaboration, and a sustained exchange program of talent, skill and technology to ensure equitable access to the latest in preventive research. This is the ONLY way the world will survive another disaster such as this.
4. Proactive and dedicated Disaster Management Program: It is well past time to act and budget specifically for a Disaster Management Program. Governments needs to specifically pump up preventive research funding in biological sciences, homegrown pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology. This must also include provisioning for healthcare infrastructure, material, emergency supplies and medical equipment, PPE, home-grown technology and know-how. Equally important, healthcare professionals and workers across the country must mandatorily attend Disaster Management Program certifications. Collaboration between government healthcare institutions and private sector hospitals will help train caregivers, doctors and nursing staff on the basics and essentials of caregiving during pandemic times. The Disaster Management Program must be a comprehensive, proactive, preventive program that is carried out as a centralized, national policy, a defined part of the union budget/plan. It cannot be a reactive measure as is the case today.
According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), even the most conservative models suggest that pandemic risks are on par with other high-profile economic threats, including climate change or natural disasters. Even as we struggle to cope with COVID-19, it would bode well for us to start preparing for the next inevitable viral wave. It is time to focus on turning off the tap with an effective Disaster Management Program in place, instead of spending all our efforts on mopping the floor, costing us millions of precious lives and the economy, years of recovery.
By Dr. Srivats Bharadwaj
Founder & CEO, Vatsalya Dental, Bengaluru
